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The Next Big Ones:Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World(英文版)

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圖書名稱:The Next Big Ones:Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World(英文版)

本書主要目的在評估全球及世界各分區,未來數十年大地震發生的機率。作者利用新的地震活動度回歸公式,計算全球及主要地震帶,不同規模的大地震在特定時間段的發生機率。這本書是作者五十多年來,為了減輕地震災害,致力於地球物理學及地震學的研究和教育,所積累的具體成果。作者希望讀者發現本書使用的研究方法,有助於減少災難性地震造成的傷亡及破壞。

The primary purpose of this book is to present quantitative forecasting of the mid-term probability of large earthquakes both globally and over various regions of the world. The author used the novel seismic activity regression formula to calculate the probability of an earthquake, in the global and major seismic zones, with any given magnitude at any given time since the most recent earthquake of the same magnitude. This book is the author's 50+ years accumulation of achievements in researching and teaching geophysics and seismology for mitigation of earthquake disasters. The author hopes that those after him will find the methodology in this book to be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused by earthquakes of catastrophic magnitude.

作者簡介:

Professor Yi-Ben Tsai

March 23, 1940 - January 31, 2018

Professor Tsai was born in a poor farming family of nine children in Taiwan.

With an unwavering belief in the importance of education, Professor Tsai earned a degree in Electrical Engineering from National Taiwan University in 1962.

After losing two sisters due to flash floods caused by a typhoon in 1959, Professor Tsai turned his efforts to mitigating the effects of natural disasters.

In 1965, Professor Tsai graduated from National Central University in Taiwan with a Master’s Degree in Geophysics. Professor Tsai then moved to the United States to pursue a doctorate in Geophysics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He graduated from MIT in 1969 with a PhD in Geophysics, specializing in Seismology.

In 1973, Professor Tsai moved back to Taiwan with his young family and started his earthquake study journey.

For more than 50 years, Professor Tsai devoted his life to the study and teaching of Geophysics and Seismology for the purpose of planning for, and mitigating the effects of, earthquakes. He focused in particular on the areas of seismic telemetry network, strong motion observation networks, earthquake early warning systems, and precursor observations which can improve prediction ability and ultimately minimize loss of life.

Professor Tsai was awarded many honors in Taiwan, including: Distinguished Alumni from National Central University, Outstanding Scholar Award from Foundation for the Advancement of Outstanding Scholarship, Outstanding Science and Technology Award, and the Ten Outstanding Young Men Award. He was also known as the “Son of Earthquakes” in Taiwan due to his contributions to earthquake research and prediction in Taiwan. Professor Tsai was the founding director of the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica in Taiwan and the founding dean of the College of Earth Sciences, National Central University. He has nurtured countless talented seismologists with the hope that they carry his legacy forward.

各界推薦
名人推薦:“This is an excellent summary of the life-long contributions of the author Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai, who has essentially led the initiation in 1960s and its subsequent development during the ensuing half Century, of the Taiwan Earthquake Research Program, which has led to one of the best and most productive seismological research enterprises in the world. Based on his Taiwan work, in this book Dr. Tsai further gives a comprehensive outline on the status of the earthquake science and hazards in...
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作者序
謝誌:

This book builds on concepts first covered in a paper I co-wrote with Kuei-Pao Chen and Wen-Yen Chang (Chang, W.Y., Chen, K.P., Tsai Y.B., (2017) Alternative representation of the Gutenberg-Richter relation in terms of the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation, Natural Hazards, 85: 1297-1322). Kuei-Pao Chen and I worked together for many years, and I especially enjoyed our close collaboration on this paper.

After the publication of the paper, I began to deve...
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目錄
Acknowledgements

Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of this Book
1.2 Outline of this Book

Chapter 2 Earthquakes and Global Plate Tectonics
2.1 Earthquake Epicenters in the World
2.2 Hypocenter Depths of Earthquakes in the World
2.3 Global Plate Tectonic Theory

Chapter 3 Data Used
3.1 Data Availability
3.2 Selective uses of the data in three periods

Chapter 4 Method for Forecasting Probabilities of Large Earthquakes
4.1 The methodology
4.2 Step 1: Calculating the logarit...
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